The power of Chinese manufacturing through the cycle


Release time:

2023-07-25

With repeated epidemics, there is an urgent need to safeguard both the supply chain for people's livelihoods and industrial production. Under the pulse of the epidemic, the soundness of the supply chain has a direct impact on the economic energy of China, a major manufacturing country. The situation in Russia and Ukraine may be another longer-term variable, and its subsequent "aftershocks" are still brewing, which can neither be evaluated nor known for the time being. The only thing that can be determined is the upcoming global supply chain uncertainty and downward pressure on the global economy.

These all make the ever-volatile economic cycle even more confusing. At the same time, an industrial cycle driven by technological change is beginning to take on new waves. Just like the new power of car-making brought about by electric vehicles such as Tesla and Wei Xiaoli, or the green energy brought about by the double carbon target, or the data gold rush brought about by the digital transformation, all need veteran veterans to deal with it with vigor. Strange faces appeared on the battlefield of fierce fighting.

Economic cycles are full of volatility, while industrial cycles are full of disruption. The double superimposed cycle makes Chinese entrepreneurs move forward, full of small flags of uncertainty everywhere.

In the midst of these turmoil of unshakable confidence, incremental revenue is the bright spot of tough times. But there are still some Chinese manufacturing companies that have delivered good answers. In 2021, BOE, BYD and TCL all saw significant revenue growth, breaking into the 200 billion yuan club. Midea Group's revenue exceeded 260 billion in three quarters and will easily break through the 300 billion in the year. Weichai Group also continued to grow, with sales of more than 500 billion yuan, and set a 2030 target of trillion yuan. The latest data from Lenovo Group shows that revenue for the entire fiscal year is expected to exceed 450 billion yuan, an increase of 27% from 353.1 billion two years ago. In the latest fiscal year pledging conference, "erecting ladder and crossing cycle" was also clearly put forward. These incremental revenue clubs, under the fog of the post-epidemic era, are ready to cross the cycle again: in the cycle of "expansion, top, decline, bottom", complete the spiral upward.

Globalization: Equalizer

The ongoing Russian-Ukrainian conflict may have opened a dangerous era of extreme diplomacy. Apart from breaking off diplomatic relations, all other measures are taken to the extreme. And the space for diplomacy to mediate is compressed as thin as plastic wrap. We have even seen a tearing hard separation between the supply chains of Europe, the United States and Russia, highlighting the dangers of globalization.
The risks of global manufacturing are released at various levels, with the exception of extreme cases, more commonly by compressing the liquidity of the supply chain and flowing in smaller areas to form regional manufacturing, which is particularly common in the past two years. The United States, Japan, the European Union and other developed industrial countries are emphasizing how to move the supply chain to their own countries and strengthen local manufacturing. At the same time, sanctions and restrictions have been stepped up, giving more cold arrows to those behind them. Southeast Asian countries with relatively low value chains are also trying to carry out more assembly manufacturing and deep processing from raw materials to expand the pace of local comprehensive industrialization. In fact, they are hoping to get a piece of the pie from China's dominant manufacturing sector.

It is undeniable that Southeast Asian countries have been rapidly rising in manufacturing in recent years, forming new manufacturing forces that cannot be ignored. Needless to say, Vietnam, like Mexico, as a neighbor of the two largest economies, fully enjoys the local manufacturing dividends under the US-China trade war. Indonesia, which is rich in raw material resources, is also considering how to press the lid of the pot tighter, leaving the meat and soup in the pot. Indonesia is the world's largest exporter of palm oil and a major producer of high-quality nickel earth, which is essential for the development of lithium batteries. The Indonesian government is considering not exporting all raw materials-all commodities. If other countries want to use these resources for processing, they must invest in Indonesia and set up factories locally. South Korea's LG Group has signed a tens of billions of dollars battery investment agreement, which stipulates that at least 70% of the nickel ore must be processed in Indonesia. Whether Indonesia's existing industrial infrastructure can absorb these raw materials is a question mark.

After the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, some companies, such as Autodesk, a 3D design software, quickly adopted a hard cutting method that directly severed relations with Russia, like pulling out an infusion tube suddenly. But Russia is not a key market for Autodesk. This reckless "extubation" action is not so much to witness the danger as to make people aware of the floating grass and fragile dependence between the two. Made in China needs to do the opposite and establish a wide range of intertwined manufacturing bases around the world, making mutual scruples. I have the sea to break the waves in my chest, and I know how to sail in the Jianghu. Entrepreneurs need to play a big game in the global landscape.

Some knowledgeable entrepreneurs have seen this. TCL's Huaxing Optoelectronics announced these two days that the panels produced by Huaxing in India have been officially supplied to Samsung through certification. In the future, we will vigorously promote the localization of production in India and foster the local supply chain in India. This action has been countered by some who believe that it will not strengthen Indian industry. As everyone knows, the global supply chain is mutual adhesion, Samsung, LG has withdrawn from the LCD panel, they rely on China Huaxing and BOE. The mud-water relationship between you and me will form the most favorable root system connection and solidify the connection for Chinese manufacturing. It will not be easy for anyone to get rid of in the future. The chip revitalization bill passed by the United States at the end of March will provide 45 billion US dollars to establish a Chip4 chip alliance around the United States, Japan, South Korea, etc., which is to block China. South Korea, on the other hand, is wary of showing indifference.

This is the equalizer effect of globalization.

The flames of war were lit everywhere, and there were gladiatorial fights everywhere. In Indonesia, the world's fourth most populous country, Japanese cars account for more than 95%. SAIC-GM-Wuling, on the other hand, is challenging Japanese cars by setting up a manufacturing plant in Indonesia. Wuling's localized manufacturing is also a practice of "making a hard village and fighting a dull battle", leading Chinese suppliers to set up a car park opposite the Suzuki Indonesian factory in Japan and opening 128 distribution stores at the same time. On the standard system of Indonesian electric vehicles, the Indonesian government is inviting Wuling to participate in the standard formulation of electric vehicles. This is the forbidden domain of the Japanese car system. For many years, these powers have been controlled within the Japanese sphere of influence. And now, the opportunity to break the sky. These efforts have been unanimously praised by the Indonesian President and cabinet officials. They went to the booth of Shangtong Wuling to take photos. These ministers also spoke for Wuling everywhere.

Local manufacturing is the best diplomacy.

In the past year, SAIC GM Wuling has achieved a 3% market share in Indonesia, which is a record of pulling out teeth. This is China in the global market, through tough tenacity, bite out. As a company that participated in the global supply chain very early, 70% of Lenovo Group's revenue is obtained overseas, while 90% of its manufacturing is rooted in China.

The current globalization is already a crustal movement shaken by the contest of big countries and the game of small countries. The idea of globalization began in the 1990 s and entered a mature period after China's accession to the WTO; after the financial crisis, it was slowly moving towards a new form. The evolution of the global supply chain has begun. Entrepreneurs who are interested in crossing the cycle should come to the most intensive positions of gunfire. The more the cold spell surges, the more we must strengthen our confidence in taking the path of globalization. Globalization is the only way to resist the cold spell of internationalization.

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